The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed the world economy into its worst downturn in decades, resulting in the steepest decline in steel demand since the global financial crisis of 2008/9. The national lockdowns, falling demand and supply chain disruptions owing to the pandemic quickly spread to key steel-consuming sectors, which had significant declines in output. Of the main steel-using industries, automotive and mechanical machinery have been affected the most; however, many other sectors that are important for steel demand, such as energy, have also been severely affected. Nonetheless, the World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook for 2021 and 2022 indicates that the post-lockdown recovery in steel demand has been stronger than was earlier expected, with steel demand expected to recover to 1.87-billion tonnes in 2021, an increase of 5.80%. Structural changes are expected to accompany the recovery process, with a shift in the demand structure of steel-using sectors, including automotive, owing to electric vehicle transitions and new urban mobility patterns; and in construction, with new patterns of urbanisation, changes in urban planning and building designs, as well as investment in the energy sector. Overall recovery, however, remains fragile, owing to the waves of infections, continued physical distancing measures, elevated unemployment and weak confidence, as well as increasing concern about the timing of a demand recovery.

While a successful Covid-19 vaccine roll-out is considered as the most important driver of the recovery from the pandemic, infrastructure investment remains as urgent as ever and is increasingly viewed as key to creating forward economic momentum. Governments worldwide are preparing to invest trillions of dollars in new economic and social infrastructure to address backlogs and provide the basis for future economic resiliency, with some even seeing it as an opportunity to ignite this century’s own ‘roaring 20s’.  Special priority is being given to so-called green infrastructure to help countries mitigate and adapt to climate change, as well as digital infrastructure, which is seen as a key platform for generating and sustaining higher levels of future-proofed growth.  For South Africa, the social and economic infrastructure deficits are so large that it is not going to be possible for government to deliver these on its own. Fiscal stresses are not the only constraint, with all three spheres of government facing serious capacity deficiencies.  It is time for South Africa to adopt a stance identical to the one articulated by US President Joe Biden in March 2021, when he unveiled his proposed $2-trillion American Jobs Plan: “We can’t delay. We can’t delay another minute. It’s long past due.”